research
The spread of directly transmitted infections is driven by the dynamics of human-to-human contacts. Daily activity pattern of individuals, their social behaviour and mobility can be quantified and modelled, opening the path to the comprehension of infectious disease dynamics. I am fascinated by emerging pathogens and disease ecology. I apply network physics and complex system approaches to reach a theoretical understanding of the interplay between human behaviour and infection propagation. Beside that, I study epidemic events by designing and implementing data-driven computational models with the goal of providing quantitative assessment and projections of the epidemic evolution.
Epidemic spreading on networks: The concept of epidemic threshold is fundamental in infectious disease epidemiology. Which are the conditions for a disease to become an epidemic? The connectivity of the network of contacts and its temporal variability determine the spreading potential of a disease. On a different scale, the chance of large-scale geographical spread is affected by the mobility network of individuals and their traveling behaviour. Modelling frameworks like temporal networks and reaction-diffusion processes allow formalising the problem and understanding the transition epidemic containment/invasion. (Figure: role of traveling duration on epidemic invasion potential)
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Emerging pathogens: (Re-)emerging pathogens, represent a public health threat. When a new pathogen emerges from a zoonotic source the many biological and epidemiological uncertainties hinder a prompt health response. Improving our capabilities to understand the outbreak dynamics is a scientific challenge. A combination of data integration, computational programming and epidemiological statistics allow quantifying the epidemic unfolding and providing risk assessment and projections.
(Figure: duration of hospitalisation of MERS cases among travellers vs. global attention to the disease as measured by Google Trends)
(Figure: duration of hospitalisation of MERS cases among travellers vs. global attention to the disease as measured by Google Trends)
Disease ecology: Disease ecology is one the most fascinating research field. The interaction among multiple pathogens and theirs persistence is determined by a myriad of factors involving completely different scales, from the biology of pathogen/host immune system interaction, to hosts’ life cycle and space structure. A proper modelling of these factors becomes easily very complex, given that it requires accounting for multiple agents, different interacting dynamical processes and temporal and spatial heterogeneities.
(Figure: two pathogen competition at the spatial level) |
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